Let's be honest—if you've been tracking Liverpool's 2025/26 season through expected goals (xG) models, you've probably felt a knot in your stomach. The numbers tell a story that doesn't quite match what you're seeing on the pitch. The Reds are creating chances, dominating possession in most matches, yet the xG ledger looks... off. Way off.
This isn't about panic. It's about diagnosis. Let's break down why Liverpool's xG underperformed this season, what it actually means, and whether you should be worried or just patient.
The Numbers Don't Lie—But They Don't Tell the Whole Story
First, the raw data. Through the first half of the 2025/26 campaign, Liverpool's non-penalty xG per 90 minutes sits around 1.85—still elite by Premier League standards. But here's the kicker: actual goals scored per 90 is hovering near 1.4. That's a gap of roughly 0.45 xG per match, which over a season translates to about 17 "missing" goals.
The gap is real, and it's not just bad luck.
Problem #1: The New Signings Haven't Clicked Yet
This is the elephant in the room. Liverpool invested in new players in the summer of 2025, and on paper, it looked like a squad built for dominance. In practice? The integration has been bumpy.
Isak's Positioning vs. Service Mismatch
Isak is averaging a respectable xG per 90 for a striker, but his goal conversion hasn't matched. The issue isn't his finishing ability; it's the quality of chances he's receiving. Many of his shots come from wide areas or tight angles, a byproduct of Liverpool's wide overloads under Arne Slot.
Troubleshooting step: Watch how Slot adjusts Isak's starting position. If he drifts too wide to combine with Frimpong or Diaz, he's taking lower-quality shots. The fix might be simpler than you think: keep Isak central, let the wingers create for him, not with him.
Wirtz in the Half-Space: High Volume, Low Efficiency
Wirtz is taking a lot of shots per 90—second only to Salah on the team. But his xG per shot is low, meaning he's taking a lot of low-probability efforts. In the Bundesliga, he got away with that because defenders gave him more space. In the Premier League, those half-chances are getting blocked or saved.
Troubleshooting step: Wirtz needs to pick his spots better. When he's shooting from outside the box with defenders closing, those shots rarely beat Premier League goalkeepers. If Slot can get him to play the extra pass or drive into the box, his xG per shot should rise.
Problem #2: The Frimpong-Kerkez Fullback Experiment
This is where things get tactical. Slot's system relies on fullbacks providing width while the wingers tuck inside. Frimpong, accustomed to Bayer Leverkusen's 3-4-3 where he played as a wingback, has struggled with defensive responsibilities. Kerkez, meanwhile, is still learning when to overlap and when to stay.
The result? Liverpool's fullbacks are creating fewer crossing opportunities than last season, and when they do cross, the quality is inconsistent.
Troubleshooting step: This is a system adjustment, not a personnel failure. Slot might consider playing Frimpong higher up the pitch as a winger in certain matches, or giving Trent more freedom to drift inside while Frimpong stays wide. The chemistry will improve, but it needs time and specific match planning.
Problem #3: The Midfield Transition
Liverpool's midfield has changed shape. With Wirtz playing as a number 10 and Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai rotating in deeper roles, the team has lost some of the progressive passing that defined last season.
Mac Allister's progressive passes per 90 have dropped. Szoboszlai is attempting more through balls but completing fewer. The result? Liverpool is playing more sideways and backward before attacking, giving defenses time to set.
Troubleshooting step: This might resolve as Wirtz learns to drop deeper to receive the ball, creating space for the midfielders to push forward. If it doesn't, Slot may need to revert to a double pivot with a more traditional number 8 alongside Mac Allister.
Problem #4: Variance and Goalkeeping
Let's not ignore the obvious: sometimes, it's just variance. Liverpool has hit the woodwork a notable number of times this season. Opposing goalkeepers have a higher save percentage against Liverpool compared to last season.
That's not sustainable. Over a full season, those numbers tend to regress toward the mean. But when combined with the tactical issues above, it creates a perfect storm of underperformance.
When Should You Be Concerned?
Here's a simple checklist:
- Wait 10 more matches: If the xG gap is still significant after 25 games, it's a systemic issue, not variance.
- Watch the shot quality: If Liverpool's xG per shot stays low, the problem is chance creation, not finishing.
- Monitor the fullback chemistry: If Frimpong and Kerkez aren't improving their crossing accuracy by February, consider tactical changes.
What Doesn't Need Fixing
Let's be clear: Liverpool's underlying numbers are still good. The xG per 90 would have been top-three in the league in any recent season. The issue is that last season set an impossibly high bar.
The defense, despite some shaky moments, is actually performing well. Liverpool's xG against is solid and among the best in the league. Alisson is still making critical saves. The structure is there.
The Verdict: Patience, Not Panic
Liverpool's xG underperformance in 2025/26 is a combination of three factors: new signings still integrating, tactical adjustments in the fullback positions, and some bad luck. None of these are permanent.
The real question is whether Slot can accelerate the integration process. If Isak and Wirtz start converting at their expected rates, and if the fullbacks find their rhythm, this team could go on a run that makes the xG numbers look silly.
But if the gap persists into the new year, Liverpool's recruitment team will have questions to answer in the January window. For now, keep watching the shot maps, trust the process, and remember: xG measures chances, not character. And this Liverpool squad has plenty of both.
Want to dive deeper? Check out our analysis of Liverpool's transfer efficiency metrics and how the summer signings compare to previous windows. For a broader view, our transfers analysis hub covers the full picture of Liverpool's squad building. And if you're wondering which rumors are worth believing, our rumor vs. reality series separates fact from fiction.
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